Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Albuquerque West Side Representatives


Hey, the Albuquerque Westside has a new House district thanks to the US Census!  Great news.  So, where do we stand?

One Democrat and four (4) Republicans are seeking the House of Representatives’ position for the newly-created 68th district seat.  For me, the new seat has intense meaning and I tend to vote right of center.  So, what do we know about the candidates?  Practically nothing!

The only information available is the headshots of three (3) of the candidates and a very short synopsis by the Albuquerque Journal.  One of the candidates has absolutely no information available, including no website (Paul Barber).  Mr. Barber’s only information is that he is a former house representative.  No surprise there, so is Ms. Williams -Stapelton and I would not vote for her either (she is a candidate in District 19).  Other than the fact that Mr. Barber is an attorney, no information is available. 

Mr. Max Barnett is running, is a businessman, and has a publicly-friendly information page as does Ms. Claudette Chavez-Hankins who is running as a moderate (can’t we all just get along?).  That leaves Ms. Monica Youngblood whose main qualifications are that she is a businessperson and conservative.  Aside from a headshot, Ms. Youngblood does not want to give up any opinions either.  So, what can we conclude?
Paul Barber is a consistent candidate for public office.  Claudette Chavez-Hankins just wants us all to agree on something (although what she wants us to agree is strangely absent), Max Barnett is ‘trendy’, and Monica Youngblood has a great headshot.  From the information out there, what can we conclude?

Paul Barber is either not serious or expects traditional Republicans to give him the vote because he is a good guy and has name recognition.  Claudette Chavez-Hankins is either really a Democrat or an extremely moderate Republican with endorsements by public Labor organizations like the Firefighters.  Max Barnett?  I have no idea.  Only Monica Youngblood stands out.  Mainly she stands out because she has garnered a host (okay, three) endorsements of other Republican Representatives.  This latter fact gives her an edge in my mind but I could support any of the three candidates who have any information out there (obviously that excludes Mr. Barber who is running on name).  My worst nightmare would be that Barber gets the nomination and runs against Eloise Gift, the Democrat, whose policies likely match the incumbent President’s.
None of these candidates have taken much of a stand on anything!

Saturday, May 5, 2012

Immigration and Immigration Reform


Today I’d like to talk about immigration, legal immigration.  In the US, we have very strict standards about how many people we admit every year.  While we maintain a fairly steady standard of living this way, we ignore the fact that most people produce a surplus over what they consume.

What do I mean by that?  For employed adults in an economy like ours, each employed person creates more value than she or he consumes.  If you were to model a population for economics, you would quickly realize that a growing population creates growing demand.  If productivity (goods and services) expands at the same rate as population, prices remain flat but GDP (Gross Domestic Product) increases.  If productivity tends to grow at a slower pace, prices increase and GDP still increases. If productivity tends to grow at a faster pace, prices decrease and GDP increases.  So, in all scenarios, GDP increases!  The only negative impact is inflation if productivity fails to keep pace with population.  See the graphs below:


Of course, the numbers are made up, kind of.  Still, all scenarios lead to GDP growth unless productivity decreases to less than half of the original productivity.  This would require allowing immigration of people with no workers.  That scenario is shown in the GDP graph but not the price graph as it would overwhelm the scale.  Obviously, then, we are in great shape as long as the people immigrating are net producers, not net consumers; pretty simple.

So, why do we see all of the hype about immigration and why the quotas?  There are several fears.  The folks who fail to understand the economics envision an influx of welfare recipients that do not work and they fear that the increased population density would alter our standard of living.  If you like the free and open spaces, certainly all growth is bad.  If you have a society with decreasing productivity, you can expect inflation. 

To the last, we need to limit immigrants to those who are net producers, i.e. working families.  To the former point, we need to realize how big the United States really is.

Imagine that the entire world’s population was confined to an urban zone the size of Texas.  The population density would be about half the population density of Paris and about the same as New York City!  I grew up in a rural area and, although currently an urban dweller, I don’t really want to live in places like New York or Paris.  Still, the mental exercise is worthwhile.  Here are the numbers for a few of the world’s denser cities and the new city of Texas (tongue in cheek here):

Paris
Monaco
NYC
New Delhi
Texas
Population
2,193,031
35,500
8,244,910
13,850,000
7,000,000,000
Area
40.7
0.8
302.6
570.0
268,581.0
Density (People per square mile)
53,883
46,711
27,243
24,298
26,063


While we might not to live in a city the size of Texas, the point is that the US is a very big place and that allowing more legal immigration will not alone degrade our standard of living. 

We need more workers.  We need families that produce more than they consume, and we need to understand that increasing the immigration quotas will not destroy life as we know it.  Of course, immigrants tend to have different political orientation.  For example, my European friends are far more left-leaning than me but the EU (European Union) is a blue state.  

Also, increasing populations require more infrastructure, roads, hospitals, schools, etc.  To the extent that some of these are government-funded, we can expect growth in government but the workers will also produce more revenue if there is a reasonable tax code.  This is a big point because the left’s (Obama and the Democrats) vision that we can continue not to tax the lower 50% and make it up by taxing the top 2% would suggest that we should not allow immigration.  

Me, I am for more growth, more immigration, and a reasonable tax code.  Everyone should pay taxes.  If the lower 50% are not paying taxes, we need to show that they are paying their fair share of the infrastructure costs.

Monday, April 23, 2012

Rick Santorum, Far Right Republicans, and Le Penn

So I earlier compared Rick Santorum to Jean Marie LePenn (See Link), a far-right French politician.  This comparison was based on outrageous, far right sound bites, like LePenn, as opposed to substantive discourse.  Santoroum's "out there" comments dominated the news even if his voting potential did not.  Some of the far-right even suggested that a vote for Romney was the same as a vote for Obama.

So, why his post?  Marine LePenn, daughter of Jean Marie LePenn, obtained nearly 20% of the French vote while Sarkozy, the current President, got about 27%.  He will face a runoff against Francois Hollande, a Socialist candidate.  The French far right party, who will not be in the runoff election, is advocating abstaining from the general runoff election!  That is so much like Rick Santorum and his supporters!

I actually believe that Rick Santorum wanted to win, not trash the Republican Party.  In point of fact, his continuing in the Republican primaries enabled those who, like Marine LePenn’s supporters, would abstain rather than vote for a “true conservative”.  This argues that all of us need to reject those who are, like LePenn’s supporters (and Santorum’s) unwilling to compromise.  If you cannot compromise, you enable the far left and the far right in our country.  The majority of people are someplace in the center.  I personally believe that most are center right but center left works as well.  We need to flush the far right and the far left from our institutions.

Only a far right view and a total disregard of the consequences kept Rick Santorum in the race for President after mid-February.  He needs to be flushed from consideration in 2016 and beyond, regardless of the outcome of this year’s election.



Thursday, April 19, 2012

Dianne Feinstein, Left Wing Radical Politics, the George Zimmerman Case, and Gun Laws

It has started!  Diane Feinstein of California has moved to block two important Senate bills, S 2188 and S 2213. Senate bill 2188 is the same as House Bill 822 (HR 822) and S2213 is a slightly different variant of S 2188.  Both bills would grant universal reciprocity for concealed weapons permits across all states that issue concealed weapon permits.  Currently there is a patchwork of reciprocity provisions that results in different reciprocity for different states as the reciprocity is worked out between each state.  Neither bill would alter the concealed carry requirements within a particular state.  


She is attempting to use the uproar over the case of George Zimmerman in Florida to distort the logic of the two bills.  In fact she is against any extension of gun rights and is using the current uproar to stop a reasonable bill from being passed.  Neither bill would alter the laws in New Mexico!

For example, New Mexico does not allow concealed carry in establishments whose primary business is to sell liquor by the glass (bars) while Arizona does allow that as long as the person carrying the concealed weapon does not consume alcohol.  The Senate bills would grant Arizona concealed carry licensees the same rights in New Mexico as permit holders from New Mexico.  The fact that their law is less restrictive than New Mexico's would not allow them to violate New Mexico's law.  All the Senate bills would do would be to force states to recognize concealed permits from other states if, and only if, the state granted concealed carry permits.  


Some states, California for example, issue concealed carry permits to select individuals rather than all legal, law-abiding, citizens.  In California, Senator Feinstein would easily qualify for a concealed permit while "Joe Gardener" would not.  A majority of states, including New Mexico, are now "shall-issue" with respect to concealed carry permits.  This means that any person who meets the statuary requirements in the state and satisfies certain state-specified training requirements, will be issued a permit.  This generally precludes felons, persons with DUI convictions, persons with mental defects, etc.  The only real difference is training.  Arizona , for example, requires just 8 hours of training while New Mexico requires 15 hours of training.  If you think that is a big deal, consider that New mexico already recognizes Arizona permit holders.  The Senate bills would only codify what is already New Mexico policy.  The Senate bills would also make New Mexico permits valid in Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida.  Currently our permits are not recognized in those states although Arizona's, with fewer hours of training required, are.  Out permits would also be recognized in California since they do issue concealed carry permits.


California, in LA and San Francisco, tends to be more left-oriented.  That is, those two population centers tend to vote more left than right.  The left, in general, has bought into the idea that more restrictions on gun ownership and deployment makes a safer city.  I actually published a post (see link) that clearly refutes that position.  That post shows that places are generally no more safe with restrictive gun laws than with reasonable laws, such as New Mexico's, that allow law-abiding citizens to carry concealed weapons.  There is no evidence, no reasonable evidence anyway, to support the far-left's position on gun control!  If you look at the post, you might even conclude that states with less restrictive gun laws are safer although I am not saying that.



Concealed carry permit holders have some training in the laws of their own state.  George Zimmerman, for example, would not have been legally allowed to accost Trayvon Martin in New Mexico or Arizona.  I don't know how this will play out in Florida.  None of us know the evidence in that case.  George Zimmerman may be convicted, acquitted, or the jury might be hung.  He might be shown to have acted in violation of the law or to have properly discharged his firearm.  The stand-your-ground portions of the Florida self-defense statute may or may not be an issue.  In any event, the George Zimmerman case does not reflect on S2188 and S2213.


Senator Tom Udall has promised to fairly weigh this legislation.  What that means is anyone's guess until he actually votes.  If the vote is strictly based on gun rights, I estimate that it is 60/40 that he will vote for the bills.  If the bills become mired in partisan politics, Udall cannot be counted on to vote for the bills.  Our other Senator, Senator Bingaman, can likely not be swayed as he is not running for re-election.


Please raise your voice to support S2188 and S2213 and to not allow Senator Feinstein, from California, to affect our rights to bear arms in New Mexico and the other states in our great country.  Senator Udall can be reached at tomudall.Senate.gov

Sunday, April 15, 2012

O'Malley, Benton, and Garduño are at it again

Debbie O'Malley, Isaac Benton, and Ray Garduño are at it again.  That is, they are putting up a lot of smoke to obscure their vote on the Paseo Del NortĂ© interchange funding proposed by Mayor Richard Berry.  This time they were joined by fellow Democrat, Ken Sanchez, in a party line vote to censure the Police Department by calling for a DOJ (Department of Justice) investigation of the department.

This came up last year as a council resolution and was vetoed by Mayor Berry.  There were not enough votes to override his veto.  I am not sure of his logic but let me state that the DOJ is already investigating the shootings in Albuquerque over the last few years and will take action if there are actionable issues.  Having the City Council call for a DOJ investigation is strictly a no-confidence vote by the council for the Albuquerque Police Department.

Really?  Is that the message you want to send to the people in the city protecting the rest of us from danger?  More likely this is a shallow, political, gesture to distract the voters from their failure to act on the Paseo Del NortĂ© interchange funding.

The issue for which they claim to be requesting help from the DOJ (yes, Eric Holder's Department of Justice) is that the Albuquerque Police Department has shot, and in many instances killed, several suspects over the last two years, allegedly in an improper fashion.  Now, none of these "august" councilmen/councilwomen will actually say that they believe the actions to be improper, only that Eric Holder's DOJ, the same people who brought you 'gun-walking', 'Operation Fast and Furious', and trials of terrorists on US soil, could do a better job than we, the people, of Albuquerque.

Leaving aside the issue of whether Eric Holder's department is truly qualified given its current leadership (there are still plenty of honest career law enforcement types there), what would they discover if they went through the records of the police shootings over the last 2 1/2 years?  They would find that almost all of  the incidents (according to news reports) involved suspects with weapons or grappling with officers for their weapons.  True, some of the suspects' families allege otherwise but grand juries, composed of citizens of Albuquerque, have cleared the officers involved.

True, there are a couple of officers with inflammatory comments but their actions still appear to be reasonable.

What all of us non-officers might ask is whether there was justification for deadly force.  Here we have to trust our system.  We have police internal affairs boards, citizen review panels, and an independent judge who oversee all of the actions of out police department.  Add to that the fact that every police department in the US is subject to review by the DOJ and there is little to fear that justice will not be served.  There is absolutely no need, except to distract the public from one's voting record, to vote to request a DOJ review.  Also, it is fine to watch TV cops avoid using deadly force but it is another to put one's own life on the line and have to try to enforce the laws and not be killed.  Hats off to out police department.

Shame on councilors Debbie O'Malley, Isaac Benton, and Ray Garduño, and Ken Sanchez for their vote.

If you want to take the time to review the reported facts, take the time to look over the data.  Now, the facts cited below are not the same as the data reviewed by the internal affairs boards, grand juries, independent judges, and DOJ, they have better and more complete data.  But, seriously, they speak of officers faced with a life-threatening situation who had to make a shoot or be killed decision in seconds.  These officers deserve our support.  That is not to say that a DOJ review is a bad thing, only that it will happen without the posturing by councilors Debbie O'Malley, Isaac Benton, Ray Garduño, and Ken Sanchez.  The facts as reported in the news media are shown below.  Note that I removed the officer names to avoid additional pressure on them.  Also, most of the hyperlinks are to TV News.  If you have a subscription to the Albuquerque Journal, there are more additional citetions in that publication but they are not available w/o a subscription.  For this reason, they are not citesd as often but I spent an entire day going through their archives to get the data and then searched the web for alternate sources.  The Journal remains an excellent source although some reporters have an anti-police bias.

There may be better data than this but the reported events overwhelmingly suggest that the actions taken by the police were justified.

2010 shootings.



No
Date
Victim Name
Weapon Y/N
Remarks
1
1/9/2010
Aaron Renfro
Y
2
1/13/2010
Kenneth Ellis
Y
3
1/29/2010
Wayne Cordova
?
KRQE Link Initial reports reported that Cordova had something wrapped around his hand.  ABQ Journal story in archives.
4
3/30/2010
Mickey Owings
N
Suspect rammed police with stolen automobile.  KRQE Link  ABQ Journal story in archives.
5
4/14/2010
Benjamin Marquez
Y
6
6/10/2010
Chris Hinz
Y
KRQE Link 10 year SWAT veterans
7
6/15/2010
Julian Calbert
Y
KRQE Link 3 yr veteran
8
7/28/2010
Len Fuentes
Y
KRQE Link 3 year veteran.  KOAT Link reported that Grand Jury cleared Hollier.
9
8/18/2010
Enrique Carrasco
Y
KRQE Link 3 year veteran ABQ Journal Link reported Brown cleared by Grand Jury
10
9/15/2010
Todd Barr
Y
KRQE Link 4 year veteran.  Cleared by Grand Jury per ABQ Journal Link
11
10/19/2010
Daniel Gonzales
Y
KRQE Link Man shot in Tucumcari after APD SWAT called out by State Police
12
10/31/2010
Alexi Sinkevitch
Y
KRQE Link 2 year veteran
13
11/12/2010
Ray Russell Tenorio
Y
14
3/4/2010
Unknown
?
Officer fired at but missed car


2011 shootings:


No
Date
Victim Name
Weapon Y/N
Remarks
1
2/10/11
Jacob Mitschelen
Y
KRQE Link.  Later reports saying that Mitschelen was shot in back were clarified by Deputy Chief Paul Feist in KRQE Link 2.
2
3/22/2011
Jerry Perea
N
KRQE Link Perea died after being tasered by officers.  Man was high on Meth and obese.
3
4/12/2011
Chris Torres
Y?
KRQE Link1 Indicates that Torres wrestled with second detective over weapon and was shot by Brown.  KRQE Link2 quotes family members as denying this.
4
5/11/2011
Alan Gomez
Y
Gomez had hostages and was reported to be armed.  When shot was not carrying gun but officer had no way of knowing.
5
6/5/2011
Raymond Grey Garcia
Y
3, 3, & 6Yrs
6
6/27/2011
Orlando Paisano
Y
KRQE Link Lujan shot Paisano after being attacked with 15 inch bayonet.
7
8/8/2011
Unidentified
Y
KRQE Link Man throwing Ax shot w/bean bag gun.
8
8/31/2011
Michael Marquez
Y
KRQE Link Shot by APD sniper (16 yr veteran) after pointing AK47.