So, what now? If the news reports are to be believed, the US now has the capacity, with its 30,000 pound MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator) to take out the Iranian nuclear facilities at Qom and Natanz. For that reason, the President believes that we have time to allow the sanctions to work. Israel, per Mr. Netanyayu, only has the capacity to strike within the next few months.
A serious issue indeed. It is perhaps more serious for Israel as the Iranian regime has consistently vowed the destruction of the Jewish state. Allied against the Israelis are those that are unhappy with the treatment of the Palestinians since the 1967 war. While Netanyahu, at last night's AIPAC meeting, insisted that there are equal Arab, non-Jewish citizens in Israel, the consistent growth of settlements in the West Bank and confiscation of Arab-owned properties continues.
I find it difficult to find a good guy in this. That being said, I also find it hard to countenance an Iran with nuclear weapons given their stance that Israel must be destroyed. Also, given their consistent support of terrorist organizations and the wholesale slaughter of our soldiers, I find it difficult to consider a nuclear-armed Iran as acceptable. I no longer believe that MAD (mutually assured destruction) will work there.
We rushed into Iraq believing that they were hiding WMD's (Weapons of Mass Destruction) and discovered otherwise. While I believe that that operation will eventually end up in the "win" column for the US, the results are at best inconclusive for now. Saddam is gone and that is a good thing. Many folks have died from the US and from Iraq. It is difficult to measure the results right now. History will tell us the truth.
Iran will likely be the same thing. If we ignore the threat and Iran arms Hamas or Hezbollah with nuclear warheads, we will likely end up with an Hiroshima-sized hole in the US! Along with the death and destruction, we will also end up with an economy even more severely damaged than after the 2008-2009 recession. Certainly, early action would have economic and human consequences but they pale beside a nuclear terrorist attack.
It is difficult to know what to do here and I don't know the answer.
Here is what we know. Iran is an enormous country full of people that are friendly to the US. Not all are hardliners like Khamenei or Ahmadinejad. A full-out war would be hurtful to our allies and adversaries within Iran. So, could a simple preemptive strike on Iranian Nuclear facilities be contained short of a full-out war? Could we avoid the wholesale invasion of Iran that we did with Iraq? Do we Americans have the will to initiate and continue a battle with the Iranian hardliners?
These are the questions that the President and the GOP candidates must answer over the next few months. They are tough questions and all of our lives are invested in the outcome. I doubt that Obama has the mettle to conclusively act. I foresee more of his analysis right up to the November election. During that time, the GOP candidates will push the rhetoric for war as it is good politics to do so. If that is to happen, I foresee that we will end up acting in Iran, regardless of the election outcome. If Obama wins, the GOP rhetoric and positive political response will drive him to (finally) act and stop analyzing. If the GOP contender wins, we will either act or Iran will come to the bargaining table with hat in hand. While this latter outcome is favorable, it is also possible that the discussion will cede the election to Obama (remember the Democratic ads against Goldwater in 1964 and the expansion of the Vietnam war after the election). Then we will be into it.
I don't want a war with Iran. Enough already. I also don't want the bad guys attacking our cities. The truth is someplace in between but I believe that the Iranian facilities will be attacked by us or Israel within the next 11 months. What ensues after that remains to be seen.
Only the Iranian hardliners can stop this.
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