Promote Immigration Reform Now

In an earlier post (Immigration Reform, It Is Time), I made the case that we need immigration reform now.  Shortly after that, a bi-partisan panel advanced a new immigration reform bill.  There is huge resistance to this bill in some quarters with the majority of the news reporting GOP resistance to the bill.  Most of the objections center on border security although a new complaint about cost has been advanced.  It is possible that some in the GOP as well as the administration believe that undocumented aliens equate to undocumented Democrats.  This is just not the case.  Neither is border security a legitimate argument against immigration reform.  In fact, the system is sufficiently broken that it actually encourages illegal immigration because legitimate work visas do not reflect the demand for foreign workers.  I say support immigration reform now.

Most of the hand-wringing on border security fails to promote a plan to actually improve it.  That is, there are arguments for a border fence followed bu arguments against the cost of a border fence and studies suggesting that fences are ineffective.  An advanced warning system implemented by DHS was discontinued when it was determined to be ineffective.  Just about all border security proposals have flaws and many of the voices complaining about border security will never be satisfied.

What does 100% border security mean?  Literally, it would mean that zero illegal crossings would be allowed.  How would we do that?  We could build a 20 foot fence along the entire border.  This would not give 100% security but it might increase the demand for 25 foot ladders on both sides of the border.

We could go to drones.  If equipped with Forward Looking Infrared and in sufficient numbers drones would at least be able to pinpoint most of the illegal crossings.  Containing those excursions, on the other hand, would still require a DHS presence.  It might be argued that it would allow for a better focus of DHS resources but it isn't free and it would not lead to 100% border security.

Let's examine the physics of our border and see if we can grasp the magnitude of the problem.  According to the 2010 census, our border with Mexico is 1,933 miles long and the Canadian border is 5,525 miles long.

First let's look at the drone solution.  Predator drones, according to Wikipedia, cruise at 81-103 miles per hour (mph).  If we wanted to overlap every part of the border every 15 minutes, a drone flying at 90 mph would cover 22.5 miles in 15 minutes.  That equates to we would need to have 86 drones flying at 15 minutes intervals along the Mexican border (1,933/22.5) at all times.  Allowing for refueling and maintenance, we could assume at least double this amount for a total of 172 drones.  At a cost of $4 million apiece, the cost of the drones would be $688 million plus spares.  Assuming 25% spares costs, this would bring the total to $860 million for hardware.  Add in pilots (1,806 for 24 hour, 7 day coverage), maintenance (100 technicians), command and control (200), for a total of 2,106 people.  Assuming an average salary of $75,000 with a $25,000 benefit package gives an personnel cost of $207.6 million.  The first year cost to use Predator drones in this fashion then would be $1.068 BILLION!  Annual costs thereafter assuming 10% scrap and 25% spares would be $241 Million in hardware and $207.6 million in personnel or $449 million. This is just the cost to patrol the Mexican border.  If we add Canada, the cost would be proportionally higher at $3.053 billion the first year and $1.283 billion for every subsequent year.  The drone solution for the US would therefor require at least $4.121 billion the first year and $1.732 billion in subsequent years.  These numbers do not account for facilities or bureaucratic ineptitude which would likely triple the figures.  Let's say $18 billion to start and maybe $7.5 billion each subsequent year.

How about troops on the border?  The Mexican border is 1,933 miles long or 10,206,240 feet.  If we stationed soldiers at regular intervals to observe and report on border excursions, it would require 102,062 soldiers if we spaced them 100 feet apart.  This spacing, if done at a distance of 100 yards from the border, would allow roughly 80% overlap in observation (for a total field of 30° (± 15°)).  To get 24 hour coverage would require three times that number plus command, control and operations personnel, perhaps 500,000 troops.   The Canadian border, according to the same census, is 5,525 miles.  If we secured the Canadian and Mexican borders the same way, it would require nearly 2 million soldiers!  Such a plan would approach 100% border security and is absolutely unaffordable not to mention unwarranted.  

A better plan would be to make work permits easier to get.  That would eliminate the majority of people illegally crossing into the US.  There is a concern by some conservatives that the cost would be excessive but Senator Rubio's bill would limit most Federal benefits for formerly-undocumented workers for the first 10 years.  Personally, the value added of the current crop of undocumented workers is about $120 billion (assuming $10,000 per person).  The cost would certainly be a fraction of that.

While undocumented aliens do present a security risk, they are undocumented, mostly their presence in the US is a result of the enablers that our society has made available to them.  Employers hire them on the flimsiest of evidence, individuals hire them in day labor settings, several states, including New Mexico, make driver's licences available to them without requiring citizenship.  Our produce, our food, our services are less expensive because they are here.  We have had an immigration policy that made it illegal to work here while our society has encouraged people to come here.  While the undocumented aliens somehow broke our laws, our society made it easy to do so.  Let's quit talking about illegals as being unworthy of consideration and recognize our complicity in their presence and their value added to society.

Let's get behind this initiative and push.