This has been in the news a lot. I have always been in the group that figured we could deal with a nuclear Iran, if necessary. Netanyahu's recent speeches made me reexamine my position.
Benjamin
Netanyahu has made the case several times that a nuclear Iran represents an
existential threat to Israel. While I was initially skeptical, the nature
of Israel's highly concentrated population does make a nuclear armed adversary
an existential threat to Israel. In fact, the threat is sufficient to
make a nuclear attack on Israel a significant threat to the worldwide Jewish
population. Israel has a population of roughly 8.1 million. A
nuclear attack concentrated on Israel's largest cities could cripple the
country and destroy a significant portion of their population with just
23 warheads, small warheads by US standards.
Here
is my logic. Pakistan has been developing nuclear weapons for nearly 30
years and has amassed, according to the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), 24
to 55 warheads with nuclear yields between 9 and 36 kilotons. Because of
Israel, a good assumption would be that Iran would concentrate on weapons with
yields over 20 kilotons. Because Pakistan is farther along in their
nuclear development, we can assume that 20 kiloton devices would be logical for
Iran in the near term.
The blast radius of a 20
kiloton device is 2.3 kilometers. The resulting blast area for a 2.3 km
radius is 16.63 square kilometers. Assume that 50 to 75% of the
population within a 2.3 km radius would die.
The
blast radius of a 40 kiloton device is 3.1 kilometers. The resulting
blast area for a 3.1 km radius is 30.19square kilometers. Assume
that 50 to 75% of the population within a 3.1 km radius would die.
The following table illustrates
how just 23 nuclear warheads would wipe out the 14 largest cities in Israel.
Up to 2.5 million would die. That is 32% of Israel's population (8 Million) and
nearly 20% of the world's Jewish population (13.3 Million)! The city, population, and area data is from Wikipedia (see
So, Netanyahu is right to be
fearful of a fully equipped nuclear Iran. Of course, one nuclear warhead
is not an existential threat to Israel but an unchecked Iran could end up with
20 to 40 small nukes. While Iran would not be a direct existential threat
to the U.S., an attack on Israel would almost certainly draw us into a
conflict. We're we to respond after an Attack, there would be a lot of
political wrangling, foot dragging, and hand wringing. The delay that
would result would make a retaliation less likely or could draw military
support to Iran from Russia or Arabian nations.
Were we not to act, we would be
passive to the destruction of 20% of the world's Jewish population but it could
happen.
If we keep sanctions in place,
Iran will likely still get a nuke but it will be more difficult. If we
get a deal with Iran on nuclear development, it needs to have strong inspection
and enforcement provisions and needs to limit their ability to enrich uranium.
Such a deal would be better than no deal but holes in the deal could
allow them to develop many weapons. That would be the existential threat
worrying Netanyahu.
Any deal with Iran must be
vetted by the Senate like any treaty. If the administration fails to do
that, congress must take appropriate actions.
Failing a good agreement, we would need to either sign a treaty with Israel promising immediate retaliation in the event of a first strike on Israel or put US forces with short range nuclear ballistic missiles inside Israel. The last option would guarantee an immediate US response to a first strike by Iran.
While I don't believe that most in Iran would favor a first strike against Israel, I truly believe that there are crazies there that would favor that action. Likewise, I generally do not favor arming Israel with short range, nuclear tipped, ballistic missiles for the same reason.
The administration needs to engage the Senate before striking any deal with Iran.
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